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After years of attempting to decrease the birth rate, notably through the one-child policy, the Chinese government has shifted its approach, promoting childbirth with the 2021 introduction of the ‘ three-child policy .’ Isabelle Attané analyzes recent population trends in China and assesses whether this policy will alleviate demographic aging and address labor shortages.
Despite remarkable economic growth in the last three decades, China still lags behind in global development, ranking 79th in GDP per capita and 85th in the Human Development Index in 2020. Despite signs of economic slowdown, China faces demographic challenges akin to developed nations, including a low fertility rate, a projected 70 million decrease in the working-age population by 2035, and rapid population aging. The introduction of the ‘three-child policy’ in 2021 seeks to address these issues, aiming for stable population growth and sustainable economic development. The 2021 amendment to the Population and Family Planning Law aims to boost fertility after the two-child policy’s 2015 failure, with a focus on alleviating financial pressures on families. However, the implementation details are left to provincial governments.
Encouraging births
The 2015 amendment to China’s law marked a significant shift in fertility policies, eliminating barriers such as the one-child limit and encouraging delayed marriage. The 2021 amendment further transforms the approach, allowing all couples to have a third child, irrespective of location or ethnicity. Language regarding age at marriage or childbirth becomes more flexible, aiming to counter the rising age of women at first marriage. While birth control remains non-mandatory, compliance with family planning laws is rewarded. The ban on sex-selective ultrasounds and abortions persists, driven by the goal to address the imbalanced sex ratio. The 2021 amendment also addresses the growing concern of infertility management, proposing measures to develop fertility treatment and assisted reproduction services.
Facilitating work–life balance
In China, the low fertility rate is attributed to gender-based imbalances in family responsibilities and workplace discrimination against women. The 2021 amendment addresses these issues, emphasizing gender equality, work-life balance, and enhanced protection for women in the job market. While the 2002 Article 25 offered extended marriage and maternity leave for those delaying family planning, the 2015 amendment extended such benefits to all women adhering to new provisions. The recent 2021 amendment reinforces maternity leave extension without specifying a duration and introduces new parental leave to encourage paternal involvement in childcare. The government also aims to mitigate the impact of childbirth on women’s employment, focusing on anti-discrimination measures in recruitment, equal pay, and preventing unfair dismissal post-maternity leave. Legal provisions emphasize protecting pregnant women and mothers in the job market and promoting infant childcare services within communities and companies. Additionally, companies are urged to adapt working conditions to support employees in maintaining a balance between family and work life.
Reducing the financial burden on families
The 2021 amendment in China introduces significant changes to alleviate the financial burden on families with children. This includes increasing income through welfare benefits and tax benefits for law-compliant childbearing. The amendment also aims to reduce expenses related to caring for dependents, such as children and elderly relatives, and provides preferential measures for housing, employment, and education access. Additionally, the reform includes policies favoring families with minor children, particularly those under 3 years old, to lessen schooling costs and standardize access to educational resources. The Decision of 26 June 2021 emphasizes regulating out-of-school tutoring to reduce the financial strain on parents. Furthermore, measures are outlined to ease the financial burden on families caring for elderly relatives, including preferential access to retirement homes and reduced medical costs.
What effects can we expect?
The new Chinese population policy, yet to be locally implemented, may not completely overcome obstacles to increasing fertility, highlighting the limitations of government intervention. Local measures could incentivize work–family balance, impacting fertility negatively affected by factors like high education costs and inadequate childcare. However, the policy might not influence individual aspirations determining reproductive behavior, as young adults prioritize education, personal development, and independence. Allowing a third child may not significantly boost fertility in the short term, given the prerequisite of having two children already. Concerns persist about potential coercion and social stigmatization, reminiscent of past policies, indicating a need for clarifications on implementation details.
Source:
Attané, I. (2022). China’s new three-child policy: What effects can we expect?. Population & Societies, 596, 1-4. https://doi.org/10.3917/popsoc.596.0001